REPORT FROM THE REAL WAR - AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Urgent Agenda has a number of private sources around the world.  One of our best is an American who periodically travels to Afghanistan, and has both the time and expertise to analyze the situation there.  Here is his latest:

My analysis is very simple...the two fundamental problems remain, neither is improved by the recent changes in leadership:

1) Lack of troops.  The ratio of troops to population must be much higher for our counterinsurgency doctrine to work.   Gen. McKiernan recognized this but was stymied both by the election cycle and by NATO in his efforts to get additional forces.  Replacing him does nothing to change this...in fact  Gen. McChrystal has asked for additional troops beyond those who were reluctantly approved for McKiernan.

2) Fractured chain of command, especially on the diplomatic side.  Basically we are not all rowing in unison. So many of the parties involved have differing and sometimes downright conflicting agendas in Afghanistan that the basic requirement of unity of command is nearly impossible to achieve.  McKiernan was roundly criticized as having an incoherent strategy, but I contend that this was a result of the command structure he was forced to work with.  

I see no new strategies or changes in vision for Afghanistan.  In fact, I recently watched Petraeus on CSPAN briefing a plan for Afghanistan that looked exactly like what McKiernan and his staff developed.  
I believe that until these two problems are solved, we will be treading water.

Grim reality.

July 14, 2009